CIA-UAP-015, Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14 (Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects)

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The attached document (s) must be safeguarded. It is the Agency's Official Historical Record and must be preserved in accordance with the Federal Records Act of 1950. For additional information, call the Chief, CIA Archives and Records Center, extension 2468. RETURN IMMEDIATELY AFTER USE TO THE CIA ARCHIVES AND RECORDS CENTER

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PROJECT BLUE BOOK SPECIAL REPORT NO. 14 (ANALYSIS OF REPORTS OF UNIDENTIFIED AERIAL OBJECTS) PROJECT NO. 10073 ii FOR OffIC!Al USt ONlY I AIR TECHNICAL INTELLIGENCE GENTER WRIGHT-PATTERSON AIR FORCE BASE No copyright materiel ls contained In this publication,

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TABLE OF CONTENTS SUMMARY. vii ORIGIN AND NATURE OF DATA 3 REDUCTION OF DATA TO MECHANIZED COMPUTATION FORM 4 I Coding System and Work Sheet 6 Identification of Working Papers. 7 Evaluation of Individual Reports 10 I ANALYSIS OF THE DATA. 14 Frequency and Percentage Distributions by Characteristics 14 I Advanced Study of the Data 16 Position of the Sun Relative to the Observer 16 Statistical Chi Square Test 60 The "Flying Saucer" Model 76 APPENDIX A. TABULATION OF FREQUENCY AND PERCENTAGE I DISTRIBUTIONS BY CHARACTERISTICS 95 APPENDIX B. WORKING PAPER FORMS 255 I LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS Figure l Frequency of Sightings by Year for Object, Unit, and All Sightings 17 Figure 2 Distribution of Evaluations of Object, Unit, and All Sightings for All Years 18 Figure 3 Distribution of Object Sightings by Evaluation for All Years With Comparisons of Each Year for Each Evaluation Group • 19 Figure 4 Distribution of Object Sightings by Evaluation for All Years and Each Year 20 Figure 5 Distribution of Object Sightings by Evaluation Within Months for All Years 21 Figure 6 Distribution of Object Sightings by Certain and Doubtful Evaluations for All Years and Each Year • 22 Figure 7 Frequency of Object Sightings and Unknown Object Evaluations by Figure 8 Distribution of Object Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups With Evaluation Distributions for Each Group . 24 Figure 9 Distribution of Object Sightings Among the Four Sighting Reliability Groups for All Years and Each Year . 25 I Figure 10 Distribution of All Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, Segregated by Military and Civilian Observers, With Evaluation Distribution for Each Segregation 26 I Figure 11 Distribution of Object Sightings by Reported Colors of Object(s) With Evaluation Distribution for Each Color Group • 27 Figure 12 Distribution of Object Sightings by Number of Objects Seen per Sighting I With Evaluation Distribution for Each Group 28 Figure 13 Distribution of Object Sightings by Duration of Sighting With Evaluation Distribution for Each Duration Group . 29

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LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS Figure 14 Distribution of Object Sightings by Months Among the Eight Duration Groups for All Years 30 Figure 15 Distribution of Object Sightings by Shape of Object(s) Reported With Evaluation Distribution for Each Shape Group , 31 I Figure 16 Distribution of Object Sightings by Reported Speed of Object(s) With Evaluation Distribution for Each Speed Group . 32 Figure 17 Distribution of All Sightings by Observer Location for All Years and Each Year 33 Figure 18 Comparison of Known and Unknown Object Sightings by Color, 1947-1952 34 Figure 19 Comparison of Known and Unknown Object Sightings by Number of Objects Figure 20 Comparison of Known and Unknown Object Sightings by Speed, 1947-1952 36 I Figure 21 Comparison of Known and Unknown Object Sightings by Duration, 1947-1952 37 Figure 22 Comparison of Known and Unknown Object Sightings by Shape, 1947-1952 38 I Figure 23 Comparison of Known and Unknown Object Sightings by Light Brightness, 1947-1952 39 Figure 24 Comparison of Monthly Distribution of Object Sightings Evaluated as Astronomical Versus Total Object Sightings Less Astronomical. 40 Figure 25 Comparison of Monthly Distribution of Object Sightings Evaluated as Aircraft Versus Total Object Sightings Less Aircraft 41 Figure 26 Comparison of Monthly Distribution of Object Sightings Evaluated as Balloon Versus Total Object Sightings Less Balloon, 42 Figure 27 Comparison of Monthly Distribution of Object Sightings Evaluated as Insufficient Information Versus Total Object Sightings Less Insufficient Information 43 Figure 28 Comparison of Monthly Distribution of Object Sightings Evaluated as Other Versus Total Object Sightings Less Other 44 I Figure 29 Comparison of Monthly Distribution of Object Sightings Evaluated as Unknown Versus Total Object Sightings Less Unknown 45 Figure 30 Characteristics Profiles of Object Sightings by Total Sample, Known Evaluations, ,- and Individual Known Evaluations, With Unknown Evaluations Superimposed , 46 Figure 31 Frequency of Object, Unit, and All Sightings Within the U. S., 1947-1952, by I Subdivisions of One Degree of Latitude and Longitude 47 Figure 32 Distribution of Object Sightings by Evaluation for the Twelve Regional Areas of the U. S., With the Strategic Areas Located 48 I Figure 33 Comparison of Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the Central East Region 49 Figure 34 Comparison of Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the Central Midwest Region 50 Figure 35 Comparison of Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the Central Farwest Region 51 I Figure 36 Comparison of Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the South Midwest Region . 52 Figure 37 Comparison of Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the South West Region

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LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS Figure 38 Comparison of Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the South Farwest Region . 54 Figure 39 Diagram of a Celestial Sphere. 56 Figure 40 Frequency of Object Sightings by Angle of Elevation of the Sun, Intervals of 10 Degrees of Angle. 57 Figure 41 Frequency of Object Sightings by Local Sun Time, Intervals of One Hour 59 Table Object Sightings 60 Table II Chi Square Test of Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of Color 62 Table III Chi Square Test of Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of Number 63 Table IV Chi Square Test of Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of Shape 64 Table V Chi Square Test of Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of Duration of Observation 65